Housing Still on Down Slope, Recovery Is Months Away
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The U.S. housing market has not reached bottom and will likely not begin to recover until the middle of this year, three housing economists said this week. The weakness will extend to existing-home and new-home sales and housing starts as well as to home prices, which are likely to show their first full-year decline nationally since records have been kept, the economists told home builders at their annual convention here. |
The biggest problem the housing market faces is “a seriously large inventory situation,” said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, which is hosting the International Builders Show here this week. Seiders said the housing boom in 2004 and 2005 produced at least 400,000 more housing units than demand could support, and builders are having to push hard to move those homes off the market. Seiders said, though, that he believes home sales did hit bottom in the fourth quarter and that housing will make a “gradual recovery” over the next two years. He said housing could actually begin to make a positive contribution to economic growth again starting in the second half of this year.
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